Rice’s third-down conversion rate with D'Andre Hardeman Jr. and without D'Andre Hardeman Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rice was 5.1 percentage points under with D'Andre Hardeman Jr. and 4.2 percentage points over without D'Andre Hardeman Jr. over its last 25 games, 18 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.3% and 41.7%, a difference of 9.4%. All 11 home games were with D'Andre Hardeman Jr.. All 11 night games were with D'Andre Hardeman Jr.. All 3 ranked opponents were with D'Andre Hardeman Jr..
D'Andre Hardeman Jr., running back: 582 rushing yards, 156 carries and 1 reception in 19 of those 25 games.
One game without D'Andre Hardeman Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with D'Andre Hardeman Jr.
−5.1%
without D'Andre Hardeman Jr.
+4.2%
-20%0%20%
plain
32.3%
41.7%
20%40%60%
The games
with D'Andre Hardeman Jr.without D'Andre Hardeman Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Navy | W | 50.0% | 37.7% | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | 37.5% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 37.5% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs South Florida | W | 33.3% | 37.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 41.7% | 37.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 26.7% | 34.8% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 42.9% | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 41.7% | 35.3% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Navy | L | 26.7% | 34.7% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 62.5% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 33.3% | 30.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 33.3% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vsMemphis | L | 18.8% | 36.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsUAB | W | 29.4% | 39.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 42.9% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @South Florida | L | 30.8% | 34.4% | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Texas State (neutral) | L | 17.6% | 40.0% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 64.7% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 16.7% | 32.9% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 10.0% | 35.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 36.4% | 30.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | 20.0% | 30.4% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 36.4% | 35.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 40.0% | 34.8% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Prairie View A&M, Houston Christian have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with D'Andre Hardeman Jr. nor without D'Andre Hardeman Jr.: D'Andre Hardeman Jr. had no game for the team that season, and sit out.