Rice’s carries with Jacurri Brown and since Jacurri Brown’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rice was 3.3 carries over with Jacurri Brown and 11.5 carries over since Jacurri Brown’s last game over its last 25 games, 6 games against 1. The plain averages are 48.9 and 51.0, a difference of 2.1. Expected was 3.0 carries higher with Jacurri Brown than since Jacurri Brown’s last game. All 4 home games were with Jacurri Brown. All 4 night games were with Jacurri Brown. All 4 nonconference games were with Jacurri Brown.
Jacurri Brown, quarterback: 478 passing yards, 83 pass attempts and 40 completions in 7 of those 25 games, 35% of Rice’s carries in those games.
One game since Jacurri Brown’s last game is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jacurri Brown
+3.3
since Jacurri Brown’s last game
+11.5
-50510
plain
48.9
51.0
405060
The games
with Jacurri Brownsince Jacurri Brown’s last game
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Navy | W | 23 | 27.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | 22 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 25 | 31.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs South Florida | W | 40 | 29.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 53 | 45.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 53 | 43.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 46 | 46.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Navy | L | 39 | 39.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 48 | 49.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 49 | 40.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 55 | 47.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vsMemphis | L | 46 | 42.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsUAB | W | 57 | 44.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 53 | 48.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @South Florida | L | 40 | 46.4 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Texas State (neutral) | L | 43 | 45.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 68 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 33 | 38.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 44 | 43.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 46 | 41.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 46 | 42.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | 51 | 42.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 54 | 46.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 51 | 39.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jacurri Brown nor since Jacurri Brown’s last game: Jacurri Brown had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.