Rice’s carries with Gael Ochoa and without Gael Ochoa
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Rice was 11.6 carries over with Gael Ochoa and 3.3 carries over without Gael Ochoa over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 51.0 and 48.9, a difference of 2.1. Expected was 3.0 carries lower with Gael Ochoa than without Gael Ochoa. All 4 home games were without Gael Ochoa. All 4 night games were without Gael Ochoa. All 4 nonconference games were without Gael Ochoa.
Gael Ochoa, quarterback: 160 passing yards, 16 pass attempts and 8 completions in 4 of those 25 games, 11% of Rice’s carries in those games.
One game with Gael Ochoa is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Gael Ochoa
+11.6
without Gael Ochoa
+3.3
-50510
plain
51.0
48.9
405060
The games
with Gael Ochoawithout Gael Ochoa
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Navy | W | 23 | 27.5 | |
| Nov 8, 2024 | @ Memphis | L | 22 | 22.3 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ UAB | L | 25 | 31.5 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | vs South Florida | W | 40 | 29.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Louisiana | W | 53 | 45.7 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 53 | 43.4 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Prairie View A&M | W | 60 | — | |
| Sep 18, 2025 | @ Charlotte | W | 46 | 46.9 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Navy | L | 39 | 39.3 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Florida Atlantic | L | 48 | 49.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ UTSA | L | 49 | 40.0 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs UConn | W | 55 | 47.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2025 | vsMemphis | L | 46 | 42.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsUAB | W | 57 | 44.5 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs North Texas | L | 53 | 48.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @South Florida | L | 40 | 46.4 | |
| Jan 2, 2026 | vs Texas State (neutral) | L | 43 | 45.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsHHouston Christian | W | 68 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Notre Dame | L | 33 | 38.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Western Michigan | L | 44 | 43.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Fresno State | L | 46 | 41.9 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | vsUTSA | L | 46 | 42.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ East Carolina | L | 51 | 42.2 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Tulsa | L | 54 | 46.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Florida Atlantic | L | 51 | 39.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Houston Christian has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Gael Ochoa nor without Gael Ochoa: Gael Ochoa had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.