Purdue’s points with Mister Clark and without Mister Clark
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Purdue was 10.8 points under with Mister Clark and 2.3 points over without Mister Clark over its last 25 games, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 30.5 and 29.2, a difference of 1.3. All 6 games on a normal week were without Mister Clark.
Mister Clark, defender: 2 of those 25 games.
2 games with Mister Clark is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Mister Clark
−10.8
without Mister Clark
+2.3
-10010
plain
30.5
29.2
10203040
A +1.3 difference in points with Mister Clark vs without Mister Clark is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Mister Clarkwithout Mister Clark
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | vs Northwestern | L | 20 | 21.4 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Ohio State | L | 0 | 7.8 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs Penn State | L | 10 | 12.8 | |
| Nov 22, 2024 | @ Michigan State | L | 17 | 18.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Indiana | L | 0 | 14.9 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Ball State | W | 31 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Southern Illinois | W | 34 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs USC | L | 17 | 20.9 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Notre Dame | L | 30 | 11.2 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Illinois | L | 27 | 20.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Minnesota | L | 20 | 21.2 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @Northwestern | L | 0 | 20.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Rutgers | L | 24 | 30.0 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Michigan | L | 16 | 17.4 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vsOhio State | L | 10 | 9.1 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Washington | L | 13 | 16.7 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | vsIndiana | L | 3 | 12.3 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Indiana State | W | 44 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | 36 | 24.5 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | 38 | 19.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsNotre Dame | L | 10 | 27.4 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Illinois | W | 24 | 31.6 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsMinnesota | W | 41 | 27.6 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vsWashington | L | 26 | 31.2 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Penn State | L | 17 | 27.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Indiana State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Mister Clark nor without Mister Clark: Mister Clark had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.