Purdue’s points of margin with Mister Clark and without Mister Clark
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Purdue was 9.0 points under with Mister Clark and 0.1 points under without Mister Clark in 2026, 1 game against 6. The plain averages are 5.5 and -5.3, a difference of 10.8. All 6 games on a normal week were without Mister Clark.
Mister Clark, defender: 2 games this season.
2 games with Mister Clark is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
with Mister Clark
−9.0
without Mister Clark
−0.1
-20020
plain
5.5
-5.3
-20020
A +10.8 difference in points of margin with Mister Clark vs without Mister Clark is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Mister Clarkwithout Mister Clark
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs Indiana State | W | 25 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Wake Forest | L | -2 | -10.4 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ UCLA | L | -14 | -13.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Notre Dame | L | -39 | -9.1 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Illinois | W | 7 | -4.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Minnesota | W | 28 | -0.9 | |
| Oct 16, 2026 | vs Washington | L | -12 | 7.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @ Penn State | L | -14 | -5.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Indiana State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 4 of these 8 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.