Pittsburgh’s third-down conversion rate with Mason Heintschel and without Mason Heintschel
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Pittsburgh was 0.5 percentage points over with Mason Heintschel and 5.6 percentage points under without Mason Heintschel over its last 25 games, 13 games against 7. The plain averages are 38.7% and 33.5%, a difference of 5.2%.
Mason Heintschel, quarterback: 3,658 passing yards, 464 pass attempts and 299 completions in 15 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Mason Heintschel
+0.5%
without Mason Heintschel
−5.6%
-20%0%20%
A +6.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Mason Heintschel vs without Mason Heintschel is about what you’d expect.
plain
38.7%
33.5%
0%20%40%60%
A +5.2% difference in third-down conversion rate with Mason Heintschel vs without Mason Heintschel is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Mason Heintschelwithout Mason Heintschel
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Louisville | L | 33.3% | 32.4% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | 52.9% | 34.0% | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Toledo (neutral) | L | 42.1% | 38.9% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Duquesne | W | 35.7% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 66.7% | 41.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ West Virginia | L | 23.5% | 35.9% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLouisville | L | 10.0% | 35.3% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsBoston College | W | 52.9% | 37.3% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 35.7% | 36.6% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Syracuse | W | 26.7% | 36.7% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 42.9% | 38.6% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Stanford | W | 38.5% | 33.9% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 0.0% | 34.9% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 38.5% | 37.5% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 30.8% | 29.0% | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs East Carolina (neutral) | L | 33.3% | 33.3% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 70.0% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 27.8% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vsSyracuse | W | 50.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Bucknell | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 30.8% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs North Carolina | L | 43.8% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Boston College | L | 20.0% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Miami (FL) | L | 33.3% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 35.3% | 42.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Duquesne, Bucknell have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Mason Heintschel nor without Mason Heintschel: Mason Heintschel had no game for the team that season, and sit out.