Pittsburgh’s third-down conversion rate with Mason Heintschel and since Mason Heintschel’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Pittsburgh was 6.3 percentage points over with Mason Heintschel and 6.7 percentage points under since Mason Heintschel’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 48.6% and 33.1%, a difference of 15.5%. All 3 nonconference games were with Mason Heintschel. All 4 first-half games were with Mason Heintschel.
Mason Heintschel, quarterback: 1,304 passing yards, 148 pass attempts and 98 completions in 5 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +13.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Mason Heintschel vs since Mason Heintschel’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +15.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Mason Heintschel vs since Mason Heintschel’s last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Mason Heintschel and it comes up 19 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 70.0% | 38.8% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 27.8% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 50.0% | 36.7% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Bucknell | W | 64.3% | — | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 30.8% | 38.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs North Carolina | L | 43.8% | 40.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 20.0% | 36.0% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 33.3% | 40.3% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 35.3% | 42.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bucknell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.