Pittsburgh’s rushing yards with Ja'Kyrian Turner and without Ja'Kyrian Turner
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Pittsburgh was 11.8 yards under with Ja'Kyrian Turner and 21.6 yards over without Ja'Kyrian Turner over its last 25 games, 15 games against 5. The plain averages are 120.3 and 179.1, a difference of 58.9. Both opponents outside the major colleges were without Ja'Kyrian Turner. All 3 games while ranked were with Ja'Kyrian Turner. Both games after a bye were with Ja'Kyrian Turner.
Ja'Kyrian Turner, running back: 876 rushing yards, 170 carries and 35 receptions in 15 of those 25 games, 49% of Pittsburgh’s rushing yards in those games.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −33.4 difference in rushing yards over expected with Ja'Kyrian Turner vs without Ja'Kyrian Turner is about what you’d expect.
A −58.9 difference in rushing yards with Ja'Kyrian Turner vs without Ja'Kyrian Turner is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | @ Louisville | L | 75 | 115.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Boston College | L | 23 | 130.2 | |
| Dec 26, 2024 | vs Toledo (neutral) | L | 301 | 132.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Duquesne | W | 158 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Central Michigan | W | 124 | 161.5 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ West Virginia | L | 47 | 125.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vsLouisville | L | 80 | 118.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vsBoston College | W | 172 | 180.7 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @ Florida State | W | 158 | 119.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Syracuse | W | 120 | 158.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs NC State | W | 106 | 116.5 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Stanford | W | 164 | 99.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Notre Dame | L | 70 | 88.7 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia Tech | W | 190 | 137.5 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Miami (FL) | L | 30 | 69.0 | |
| Dec 27, 2025 | vs East Carolina (neutral) | L | 120 | 115.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 166 | 137.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 107 | 159.0 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vsSyracuse | W | 247 | 146.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Bucknell | W | 192 | — | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 107 | 157.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs North Carolina | L | 150 | 195.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @Boston College | L | 199 | 168.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @Miami (FL) | L | 69 | 109.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsGeorgia Tech | W | 282 | 213.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 5.9 in 2025, plus 8.0 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 77% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Duquesne, Bucknell have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 22 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Ja'Kyrian Turner nor without Ja'Kyrian Turner: Ja'Kyrian Turner had no game for the team that season, and sit out.