Pittsburgh’s pass attempts with Mason Heintschel and since Mason Heintschel’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Pittsburgh was 1.8 pass attempts under with Mason Heintschel and 3.6 pass attempts over since Mason Heintschel’s last game in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 35.8 and 34.0, a difference of 1.8. Expected was 2.9 pass attempts higher with Mason Heintschel than since Mason Heintschel’s last game. All 3 nonconference games were with Mason Heintschel. All 4 first-half games were with Mason Heintschel.
Mason Heintschel, quarterback: 1,304 passing yards, 148 pass attempts and 98 completions in 5 games this season, 83% of Pittsburgh’s pass attempts in those games.
pass attempts a game over expected
A −5.4 difference in pass attempts over expected with Mason Heintschel vs since Mason Heintschel’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.8 difference in pass attempts with Mason Heintschel vs since Mason Heintschel’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 44 | 37.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 29 | 31.9 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 23 | 33.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Bucknell | W | 53 | — | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 30 | 30.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs North Carolina | L | 44 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 25 | 28.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 35 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 32 | 28.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Bucknell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.