Pittsburgh’s carries with Holden Geriner and without Holden Geriner
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Pittsburgh was 3.6 carries over with Holden Geriner and 1.0 carries under without Holden Geriner in 2026, 3 games against 5. The plain averages are 40.3 and 34.2, a difference of 6.2. All 3 nonconference games were without Holden Geriner. All 4 first-half games were without Holden Geriner.
Holden Geriner, quarterback: 886 passing yards, 132 pass attempts and 77 completions in 6 games this season, 10% of Pittsburgh’s carries in those games.
3 games with Holden Geriner is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +4.6 difference in carries over expected with Holden Geriner vs without Holden Geriner is about what you’d expect.
A +6.2 difference in carries with Holden Geriner vs without Holden Geriner is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Miami (OH) | W | 30 | 34.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs UCF | W | 40 | 37.7 | |
| Sep 17, 2026 | vs Syracuse | W | 36 | 34.7 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs Bucknell | W | 30 | — | |
| Oct 2, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 30 | 34.3 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs North Carolina | L | 41 | 39.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @ Boston College | L | 39 | 38.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Miami (FL) | L | 26 | 30.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Georgia Tech | W | 54 | 40.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Bucknell has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 8 of these 9 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.