Oregon’s third-down conversion rate with Dylan Raiola and without Dylan Raiola
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oregon was 4.7 percentage points under with Dylan Raiola and 5.8 percentage points under without Dylan Raiola over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 32.0% and 41.3%, a difference of 9.4%. Both night games were without Dylan Raiola. All 3 ranked opponents were with Dylan Raiola. All 3 nonconference games were without Dylan Raiola.
Dylan Raiola, quarterback: 1,097 passing yards, 145 pass attempts and 96 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +1.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Dylan Raiola vs without Dylan Raiola is about what you’d expect.
A −9.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Dylan Raiola vs without Dylan Raiola is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Penn State (neutral) | W | 46.2% | 41.9% | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 42.1% | 41.6% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Montana State | W | 70.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 58.3% | 48.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Northwestern | W | 63.6% | 45.3% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 40.0% | 42.2% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Penn State | W | 33.3% | 47.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 21.4% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 72.7% | 42.4% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 53.3% | 41.5% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Iowa | W | 30.0% | 41.8% | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 66.7% | 46.6% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs USC | W | 58.3% | 44.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 37.5% | 45.4% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs James Madison | W | 42.9% | 43.6% | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Texas Tech (neutral) | W | 21.1% | 42.9% | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vsIndiana (neutral) | L | 61.5% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boise State | W | 33.3% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 35.7% | 36.5% | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 78.6% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @USC | W | 50.0% | 33.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 8.3% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Nebraska | W | 17.6% | 33.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Illinois | L | 26.7% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNorthwestern | W | 42.9% | 37.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Dylan Raiola nor without Dylan Raiola: Dylan Raiola had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.