Oregon’s third-down conversion rate with Dylan Raiola and without Dylan Raiola
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oregon was 4.7 percentage points under with Dylan Raiola and 5.8 percentage points under without Dylan Raiola in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 32.0% and 41.3%, a difference of 9.4%. Both night games were without Dylan Raiola. All 3 ranked opponents were with Dylan Raiola. All 3 nonconference games were without Dylan Raiola.
Dylan Raiola, quarterback: 1,097 passing yards, 145 pass attempts and 96 completions in 6 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +1.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Dylan Raiola vs without Dylan Raiola is about what you’d expect.
A −9.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Dylan Raiola vs without Dylan Raiola is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boise State | W | 33.3% | 34.5% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 35.7% | 36.5% | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 78.6% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ USC | W | 50.0% | 33.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 8.3% | 34.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Nebraska | W | 17.6% | 33.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Illinois | L | 26.7% | 41.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northwestern | W | 42.9% | 37.5% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.