Oregon’s points with Dylan Raiola and without Dylan Raiola
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oregon was 0.1 points over with Dylan Raiola and 0.5 points under without Dylan Raiola over its last 25 games, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 25.0 and 41.5, a difference of 16.5. Both night games were without Dylan Raiola. All 3 ranked opponents were with Dylan Raiola. All 3 nonconference games were without Dylan Raiola.
Dylan Raiola, quarterback: 1,097 passing yards, 145 pass attempts and 96 completions in 6 of those 25 games.
points a game over expected
with Dylan Raiola
+0.1
without Dylan Raiola
−0.5
-20-10010
A +0.7 difference in points over expected with Dylan Raiola vs without Dylan Raiola is about what you’d expect.
plain
25.0
41.5
20406080
A −16.5 difference in points with Dylan Raiola vs without Dylan Raiola is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Dylan Raiolawithout Dylan Raiola
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Penn State (neutral) | W | 45 | 25.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 21 | 24.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Montana State | W | 59 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 69 | 41.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Northwestern | W | 34 | 31.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 41 | 45.6 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Penn State | W | 30 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 20 | 26.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 56 | 39.1 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 21 | 34.1 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Iowa | W | 18 | 27.8 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 42 | 37.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs USC | W | 42 | 34.0 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 26 | 31.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs James Madison | W | 51 | 34.4 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Texas Tech (neutral) | W | 23 | 26.7 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vsIndiana (neutral) | L | 22 | 24.7 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boise State | W | 34 | 27.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 31 | 28.3 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 84 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @USC | W | 41 | 22.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 15 | 23.3 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Nebraska | W | 17 | 27.5 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Illinois | L | 10 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNorthwestern | W | 34 | 23.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Dylan Raiola nor without Dylan Raiola: Dylan Raiola had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.