Oregon’s pass attempts vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oregon was 6.4 pass attempts over vs a top-10 opponent and 1.2 pass attempts under vs an unranked opponent over its last 25 games, 6 games against 12. The plain averages are 36.7 and 30.1, a difference of 6.5. All 4 neutral-site games were vs a top-10 opponent. Both games while unranked were vs an unranked opponent. All 3 bowl and playoff games were vs a top-10 opponent.
Oregon’s +7.6 vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent over expected ranks 4th of the 31 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games.
pass attempts a game over expected
A +7.6 difference in pass attempts over expected vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up 6 times in 100.
A +6.5 difference in pass attempts vs a top-10 opponent and vs an unranked opponent is unusual: shuffle which games were vs a top-10 opponent and it comes up 2 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | pass attempts | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Penn State (neutral) | W | 32 | 29.8 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 42 | 29.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Montana State | W | 25 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 25 | 28.2 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Northwestern | W | 26 | 28.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 31 | 25.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Penn State | W | 39 | 28.0 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 34 | 30.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 24 | 27.9 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 19 | 29.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Iowa | W | 21 | 30.8 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 33 | 29.0 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs USC | W | 30 | 30.2 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 29 | 34.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs James Madison | W | 27 | 30.2 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Texas Tech (neutral) | W | 34 | 33.9 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vsIndiana (neutral) | L | 39 | 30.2 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boise State | W | 38 | 35.4 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 29 | 34.8 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 43 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @USC | W | 35 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 34 | 31.1 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Nebraska | W | 38 | 33.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Illinois | L | 41 | 30.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNorthwestern | W | 31 | 36.3 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 0.4 in 2024, minus 0.3 in 2025, minus 0.1 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 73% in 2025, 60% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Montana State, Portland State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.