Oregon’s carries with Dylan Raiola and without Dylan Raiola
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oregon was 4.0 carries under with Dylan Raiola and 0.2 carries over without Dylan Raiola in 2026, 4 games against 3. The plain averages are 28.5 and 35.8, a difference of 7.3. Both night games were without Dylan Raiola. All 3 ranked opponents were with Dylan Raiola. All 3 nonconference games were without Dylan Raiola.
Dylan Raiola, quarterback: 1,097 passing yards, 145 pass attempts and 96 completions in 6 games this season, 4% of Oregon’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Dylan Raiola
−4.0
without Dylan Raiola
+0.2
-10-505
A −4.3 difference in carries over expected with Dylan Raiola vs without Dylan Raiola is about what you’d expect.
plain
28.5
35.8
304050
A −7.3 difference in carries with Dylan Raiola vs without Dylan Raiola is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Dylan Raiolawithout Dylan Raiola
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boise State | W | 25 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 30 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 51 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ USC | W | 32 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 27 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Nebraska | W | 37 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Illinois | L | 32 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northwestern | W | 23 | 33.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.