Oregon’s carries with Dante Moore and without Dante Moore
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oregon was 0.4 carries under with Dante Moore and 1.1 carries under without Dante Moore over its last 25 games, 16 games against 7. The plain averages are 35.6 and 31.4, a difference of 4.2. Both opponents outside the major colleges were with Dante Moore. All 3 games while unranked were without Dante Moore.
Dante Moore, quarterback: 4,491 passing yards, 512 pass attempts and 365 completions in 20 of those 25 games, 12% of Oregon’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
with Dante Moore
−0.4
without Dante Moore
−1.1
-10010
A +0.8 difference in carries over expected with Dante Moore vs without Dante Moore is about what you’d expect.
plain
35.6
31.4
304050
A +4.2 difference in carries with Dante Moore vs without Dante Moore is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Dante Moorewithout Dante Moore
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2024 | vs Penn State (neutral) | W | 41 | 34.5 | |
| Jan 1, 2025 | vs Ohio State (neutral) | L | 28 | 34.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Montana State | W | 38 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Oklahoma State | W | 37 | 41.1 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Northwestern | W | 29 | 36.7 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Oregon State | W | 45 | 36.4 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | @Penn State | W | 39 | 37.1 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Indiana | L | 30 | 30.7 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Rutgers | W | 35 | 34.6 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Wisconsin | W | 42 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | @ Iowa | W | 36 | 35.3 | |
| Nov 14, 2025 | vs Minnesota | W | 30 | 38.3 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vs USC | W | 40 | 36.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @ Washington | W | 39 | 34.0 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vs James Madison | W | 23 | 35.7 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vs Texas Tech (neutral) | W | 46 | 33.4 | |
| Jan 9, 2026 | vsIndiana (neutral) | L | 26 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boise State | W | 25 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Oklahoma State | L | 30 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 51 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @USC | W | 32 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 27 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Nebraska | W | 37 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Illinois | L | 32 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsNorthwestern | W | 23 | 33.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Montana State, Portland State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 23 of these 25 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.