Oregon’s carries with Dante Moore and since Dante Moore’s last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oregon was 3.6 carries under with Dante Moore and 1.6 carries under since Dante Moore’s last game in 2026, 2 games against 5. The plain averages are 35.3 and 30.2, a difference of 5.1. All 3 ranked opponents were since Dante Moore’s last game. All 3 games while unranked were since Dante Moore’s last game. All 5 conference games were since Dante Moore’s last game.
Dante Moore, quarterback: 926 passing yards, 99 pass attempts and 69 completions in 4 games this season, 7% of Oregon’s carries in those games.
3 games with Dante Moore is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −2.0 difference in carries over expected with Dante Moore vs since Dante Moore’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A +5.1 difference in carries with Dante Moore vs since Dante Moore’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vs Boise State | W | 25 | 27.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Oklahoma State | L | 30 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 18, 2026 | vsPPortland State | W | 51 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ USC | W | 32 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs UCLA | L | 27 | 33.7 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Nebraska | W | 37 | 29.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Illinois | L | 32 | 31.3 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Northwestern | W | 23 | 33.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Portland State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.