Oregon State’s third-down conversion rate with Maalik Murphy and since Maalik Murphy’s last game
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oregon State was 2.7 percentage points over with Maalik Murphy and 0.5 percentage points under since Maalik Murphy’s last game over its last 25 games, 7 games against 11. The plain averages are 37.6% and 41.3%, a difference of 3.7%. Expected was 5.5 percentage points lower with Maalik Murphy than since Maalik Murphy’s last game. All 6 conference games were since Maalik Murphy’s last game. All 3 games after a bye were since Maalik Murphy’s last game. All 7 of Trent Bray’s games were with Maalik Murphy.
Maalik Murphy, quarterback: 1,886 passing yards, 289 pass attempts and 172 completions in 12 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +3.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Maalik Murphy vs since Maalik Murphy’s last game is about what you’d expect.
A −3.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Maalik Murphy vs since Maalik Murphy’s last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ California | L | 8.3% | 37.6% | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs San Jose State | L | 41.2% | 45.1% | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Air Force | L | 20.0% | 40.6% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Washington State | W | 46.7% | 36.9% | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 23.1% | 38.8% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsCalifornia | L | 27.3% | 40.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | 58.8% | 34.0% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 41.2% | 28.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 33.3% | 32.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 41.2% | 36.4% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Appalachian State | L | 36.4% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | L | 29.4% | 34.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Lafayette | W | 33.3% | — | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsWashington State | W | 8.3% | 37.9% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | L | 40.0% | 42.3% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tulsa | L | 44.4% | 38.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Washington State | L | 21.4% | 35.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Houston | L | 26.7% | 42.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsTexas Tech | L | 26.7% | 41.4% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Montana | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 50.0% | 45.7% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Colorado State | W | 83.3% | 40.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs San Diego State | W | 70.6% | 43.2% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vsWashington State | W | 38.5% | 42.2% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | @Fresno State | L | 35.3% | 41.3% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Lafayette, Montana have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 19 of these 20 games; in the other game a player is counted as in it when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.
- 5 games in 2024 are neither with Maalik Murphy nor since Maalik Murphy’s last game: Maalik Murphy had no game for the team that season, and sit out.