Oregon State’s carries at home and away
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Through Oregon State’s game on Sep 26, 2026.
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oregon State was 4.4 carries over at home and 7.3 carries under away over its last 25 games, 12 games against 11. The plain averages are 38.8 and 27.0, a difference of 11.8. Both opponents outside the major colleges were at home.
Oregon State’s +11.7 at home vs away over expected ranks 1st of the 136 teams with 4 games on each side over their last 25 games through Sep 26, 2026.
carries a game over expected
at home
+4.4
away
−7.3
-10010
A +11.7 difference in carries over expected at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up once in 100.
plain
38.8
27.0
20304050
A +11.8 difference in carries at home vs away is rare: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up less than once in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2024 | vs Purdue | W | 55 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 5, 2024 | vs Colorado State | W | 47 | 36.4 | |
| Oct 12, 2024 | @ Nevada | L | 43 | 39.1 | |
| Oct 19, 2024 | vs UNLV | L | 37 | 37.0 | |
| Oct 26, 2024 | @ California | L | 27 | 37.7 | |
| Nov 9, 2024 | vs San Jose State | L | 45 | 40.0 | |
| Nov 16, 2024 | @ Air Force | L | 24 | 37.1 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Washington State | W | 43 | 34.9 | |
| Nov 29, 2024 | @ Boise State | L | 19 | 37.0 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vsCalifornia | L | 26 | 35.8 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Fresno State | L | 33 | 33.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Texas Tech | L | 22 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | @ Oregon | L | 26 | 32.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2025 | vs Houston | L | 49 | 31.4 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | @ Appalachian State | L | 25 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Wake Forest | L | 38 | 33.5 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | vs Lafayette | W | 42 | — | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vsWashington State | W | 38 | 28.7 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs Sam Houston | L | 40 | 38.4 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @ Tulsa | L | 35 | 38.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | @Washington State | L | 29 | 29.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | @Houston | L | 25 | 25.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vsTexas Tech | L | 19 | 30.7 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs Montana | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ UTEP | W | 22 | 34.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Lafayette, Montana have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Read against the season’s ratings as of Oct 31, 2026; the games are the ones through Sep 26.