Ole Miss’ third-down conversion rate with Makhi Frazier and without Makhi Frazier
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ole Miss was 3.0 percentage points over with Makhi Frazier and 20.8 percentage points over without Makhi Frazier in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 46.2% and 60.0%, a difference of 13.8%. All 3 away games were with Makhi Frazier. All 4 day games were with Makhi Frazier. All 3 unranked opponents were with Makhi Frazier.
Makhi Frazier, running back: 357 rushing yards, 68 carries and 8 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Makhi Frazier is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Makhi Frazier
+3.0%
without Makhi Frazier
+20.8%
-20%0%20%40%
plain
46.2%
60.0%
40%60%80%
The games
with Makhi Frazierwithout Makhi Frazier
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Louisville (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 25.0% | 50.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 60.0% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Florida | L | 36.4% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 45.5% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 64.3% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 81.3% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.