Ole Miss’ third-down conversion rate with Kewan Lacy and without Kewan Lacy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ole Miss was 1.1 percentage points over with Kewan Lacy and 17.2 percentage points over without Kewan Lacy over its last 25 games, 20 games against 2. The plain averages are 43.2% and 58.8%, a difference of 15.6%. All 3 neutral-site games were with Kewan Lacy. All 9 night games were with Kewan Lacy. All 5 top-10 opponents were with Kewan Lacy.
Kewan Lacy, running back: 1,955 rushing yards, 384 carries and 39 receptions in 21 of those 25 games.
2 games without Kewan Lacy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −16.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Kewan Lacy vs without Kewan Lacy is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Kewan Lacy and it comes up 16 times in 100.
A −15.6% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kewan Lacy vs without Kewan Lacy is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Mississippi State | W | 44.4% | 43.2% | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Duke (neutral) | W | 54.5% | 37.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 61.5% | 47.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 23.1% | 43.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 66.7% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Tulane | W | 63.6% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs LSU | W | 50.0% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 46.7% | 39.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 55.6% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | W | 42.9% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 9.1% | 44.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs The Citadel | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 37.5% | 44.4% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Mississippi State | W | 41.7% | 41.8% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsTulane | W | 30.0% | 43.7% | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | W | 35.7% | 38.1% | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | L | 20.0% | 35.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Louisville (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 25.0% | 50.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsLSU | W | 60.0% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Florida | L | 36.4% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 45.5% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 64.3% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 81.3% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- The Citadel has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 2 games in 2024 are neither with Kewan Lacy nor without Kewan Lacy: Kewan Lacy had no game for the team that season, and sit out.