Ole Miss’ third-down conversion rate with Kewan Lacy and without Kewan Lacy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ole Miss was 1.2 percentage points over with Kewan Lacy and 17.2 percentage points over without Kewan Lacy in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 44.3% and 58.8%, a difference of 14.5%. All 4 night games were with Kewan Lacy. Both nonconference games were with Kewan Lacy.
Kewan Lacy, running back: 388 rushing yards, 78 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Kewan Lacy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −16.0% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Kewan Lacy vs without Kewan Lacy is about what you’d expect.
A −14.5% difference in third-down conversion rate with Kewan Lacy vs without Kewan Lacy is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Louisville (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 25.0% | 50.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 60.0% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Florida | L | 36.4% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 45.5% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 64.3% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 81.3% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.