Ole Miss’ third-down conversion rate with JT Lindsey and without JT Lindsey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ole Miss was 2.7 percentage points over with JT Lindsey and 22.7 percentage points over without JT Lindsey over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 45.6% and 64.3%, a difference of 18.7%. All 3 away games were with JT Lindsey. All 4 night games were with JT Lindsey. All 3 unranked opponents were with JT Lindsey.
JT Lindsey, running back: 94 rushing yards, 28 carries and 2 receptions in 6 of those 25 games.
One game without JT Lindsey is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with JT Lindsey
+2.7%
without JT Lindsey
+22.7%
-20%0%20%40%
plain
45.6%
64.3%
40%60%80%
The games
with JT Lindseywithout JT Lindsey
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Mississippi State | W | 44.4% | 43.2% | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Duke (neutral) | W | 54.5% | 37.0% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 61.5% | 47.1% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 23.1% | 43.9% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 66.7% | 42.9% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Tulane | W | 63.6% | 40.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs LSU | W | 50.0% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 46.7% | 39.3% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 55.6% | 35.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | W | 42.9% | 33.6% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 9.1% | 44.3% | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs The Citadel | W | 58.3% | — | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 37.5% | 44.4% | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Mississippi State | W | 41.7% | 41.8% | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsTulane | W | 30.0% | 43.7% | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | W | 35.7% | 38.1% | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | L | 20.0% | 35.4% | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Louisville (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 25.0% | 50.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsLSU | W | 60.0% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Florida | L | 36.4% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 45.5% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 64.3% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 81.3% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with JT Lindsey nor without JT Lindsey: JT Lindsey had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.