Ole Miss’ third-down conversion rate with JT Lindsey and without JT Lindsey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ole Miss was 2.7 percentage points over with JT Lindsey and 22.7 percentage points over without JT Lindsey in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 45.6% and 64.3%, a difference of 18.7%. All 3 away games were with JT Lindsey. All 4 night games were with JT Lindsey. All 3 unranked opponents were with JT Lindsey.
JT Lindsey, running back: 94 rushing yards, 28 carries and 2 receptions in 6 games this season.
One game without JT Lindsey is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with JT Lindsey
+2.7%
without JT Lindsey
+22.7%
-20%0%20%40%
plain
45.6%
64.3%
40%60%80%
The games
with JT Lindseywithout JT Lindsey
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Louisville (neutral) | W | 37.5% | 40.1% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 25.0% | 50.8% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 60.0% | 39.2% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Florida | L | 36.4% | 43.7% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 45.5% | 46.1% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 64.3% | 41.6% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 33.3% | 40.5% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 81.3% | 39.6% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.