Ole Miss’ points with Kewan Lacy and without Kewan Lacy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ole Miss was 3.7 points over with Kewan Lacy and 3.7 points over without Kewan Lacy in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 37.3 and 36.5, a difference of 0.8. All 4 night games were with Kewan Lacy. Both nonconference games were with Kewan Lacy.
Kewan Lacy, running back: 388 rushing yards, 78 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Kewan Lacy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points a game over expected
with Kewan Lacy
+3.7
without Kewan Lacy
+3.7
010
A +0.0 difference in points over expected with Kewan Lacy vs without Kewan Lacy is about what you’d expect.
plain
37.3
36.5
304050
A +0.8 difference in points with Kewan Lacy vs without Kewan Lacy is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Kewan Lacywithout Kewan Lacy
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Louisville (neutral) | W | 41 | 36.5 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 41 | 50.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 32 | 27.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Florida | L | 28 | 34.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 52 | 34.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 31 | 29.2 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 27 | 24.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 45 | 31.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.