Ole Miss’ points of margin with Kewan Lacy and without Kewan Lacy
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ole Miss was 5.7 points over with Kewan Lacy and 6.5 points under without Kewan Lacy in 2026, 6 games against 2. The plain averages are 16.5 and 3.0, a difference of 13.5. All 4 night games were with Kewan Lacy. Both nonconference games were with Kewan Lacy.
Kewan Lacy, running back: 388 rushing yards, 78 carries and 10 receptions in 6 games this season.
2 games without Kewan Lacy is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +12.2 difference in points of margin over expected with Kewan Lacy vs without Kewan Lacy is about what you’d expect.
A +13.5 difference in points of margin with Kewan Lacy vs without Kewan Lacy is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Louisville (neutral) | W | 3 | 12.8 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 32 | 45.6 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs LSU | W | 8 | -7.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Florida | L | -24 | 9.2 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 35 | 15.0 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 28 | 1.3 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas | L | -7 | -2.9 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 30 | 9.8 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.