Ole Miss’ passing yards with Makhi Frazier and without Makhi Frazier
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ole Miss was 6.2 yards over with Makhi Frazier and 148.1 yards over without Makhi Frazier over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 270.6 and 363.0, a difference of 92.4. All 3 away games were with Makhi Frazier. All 4 day games were with Makhi Frazier. All 3 unranked opponents were with Makhi Frazier.
Makhi Frazier, running back: 357 rushing yards, 68 carries and 8 receptions in 7 of those 25 games.
One game without Makhi Frazier is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
passing yards a game over expected
with Makhi Frazier
+6.2
without Makhi Frazier
+148.1
050100
plain
270.6
363.0
250300350
The games
with Makhi Frazierwithout Makhi Frazier
| Side | Date | Game | Result | passing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Mississippi State | W | 143 | 336.4 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Duke (neutral) | W | 438 | 280.7 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 400 | 298.6 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 235 | 296.9 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 357 | 280.8 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Tulane | W | 307 | 311.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs LSU | W | 314 | 252.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 253 | 251.0 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 263 | 267.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | W | 315 | 259.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 159 | 290.3 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs The Citadel | W | 452 | — | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 301 | 273.7 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Mississippi State | W | 359 | 277.8 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsTulane | W | 346 | 308.1 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | W | 362 | 258.1 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | L | 277 | 260.0 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Louisville (neutral) | W | 336 | 258.6 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 293 | 319.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsLSU | W | 363 | 214.9 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Florida | L | 298 | 247.8 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 213 | 260.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 241 | 282.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 250 | 210.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 263 | 271.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 4.1 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 59% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Makhi Frazier nor without Makhi Frazier: Makhi Frazier had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.