Ole Miss’ carries with JT Lindsey and without JT Lindsey
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ole Miss was 2.1 carries under with JT Lindsey and 8.6 carries over without JT Lindsey over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.4 and 38.0, a difference of 5.6. All 3 away games were with JT Lindsey. All 4 night games were with JT Lindsey. All 3 unranked opponents were with JT Lindsey.
JT Lindsey, running back: 94 rushing yards, 28 carries and 2 receptions in 6 of those 25 games, 14% of Ole Miss’s carries in those games.
One game without JT Lindsey is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with JT Lindsey
−2.1
without JT Lindsey
+8.6
-10010
plain
32.4
38.0
3040
The games
with JT Lindseywithout JT Lindsey
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | vs Mississippi State | W | 51 | 39.6 | |
| Jan 2, 2025 | vs Duke (neutral) | W | 33 | 42.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 44 | 41.9 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | @ Kentucky | W | 47 | 38.3 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | vs Arkansas | W | 38 | 41.3 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Tulane | W | 42 | 35.5 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs LSU | W | 42 | 36.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Washington State | W | 41 | 34.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ Georgia | L | 24 | 32.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | @ Oklahoma | W | 39 | 35.8 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | vs South Carolina | W | 43 | 38.6 | |
| Nov 8, 2025 | vs The Citadel | W | 35 | — | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | vs Florida | W | 46 | 38.4 | |
| Nov 28, 2025 | @Mississippi State | W | 39 | 39.5 | |
| Dec 20, 2025 | vsTulane | W | 32 | 36.7 | |
| Jan 1, 2026 | vsGeorgia (neutral) | W | 27 | 32.2 | |
| Jan 8, 2026 | vs Miami (FL) (neutral) | L | 21 | 35.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2026 | vs Louisville (neutral) | W | 40 | 36.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Charlotte | W | 24 | 39.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vsLSU | W | 23 | 32.3 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @Florida | L | 27 | 32.7 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Vanderbilt | W | 35 | 34.8 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Missouri | W | 38 | 29.4 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Texas | L | 30 | 32.1 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Auburn | W | 48 | 34.9 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with JT Lindsey nor without JT Lindsey: JT Lindsey had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.