Old Dominion’s third-down conversion rate with Quinn Henicle and without Quinn Henicle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 1.1 percentage points over with Quinn Henicle and 1.3 percentage points under without Quinn Henicle over its last 25 games, 6 games against 17. The plain averages are 41.1% and 38.3%, a difference of 2.8%. All 3 games after a bye were without Quinn Henicle.
Quinn Henicle, quarterback: 981 passing yards, 150 pass attempts and 80 completions in 14 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +2.3% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is about what you’d expect.
A +2.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Quinn Henicle and it comes up 16 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs James Madison | L | 9.1% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 56.3% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | W | 58.3% | 45.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 40.0% | 29.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 44.4% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 42.9% | 45.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 50.0% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @Marshall | L | 28.6% | 42.1% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @James Madison | L | 36.4% | 33.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 50.0% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 30.8% | 45.0% | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Troy | W | 33.3% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 58.3% | 45.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 46.7% | 45.3% | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs South Florida (neutral) | W | 45.0% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Virginia Tech | L | 30.8% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs East Carolina | L | 33.3% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsJames Madison | L | 25.0% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Georgia State | L | 29.4% | 33.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Appalachian State | W | 35.0% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | L | 30.0% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 38.5% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMarshall | L | 38.5% | 38.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina Central, Norfolk State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 18 of these 25 games; in the other 7 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.