Old Dominion’s third-down conversion rate with Quinn Henicle and without Quinn Henicle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 3.3 percentage points under with Quinn Henicle and 4.7 percentage points under without Quinn Henicle in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 36.8% and 33.0%, a difference of 3.8%. All 3 nonconference games were with Quinn Henicle.
Quinn Henicle, quarterback: 654 passing yards, 98 pass attempts and 54 completions in 6 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Quinn Henicle
−3.3%
without Quinn Henicle
−4.7%
-10%-5%0%
A +1.4% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is about what you’d expect.
plain
36.8%
33.0%
30%40%50%
A +3.8% difference in third-down conversion rate with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Quinn Heniclewithout Quinn Henicle
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 30.8% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs East Carolina | L | 33.3% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 25.0% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia State | L | 29.4% | 32.9% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | W | 35.0% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 30.0% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 38.5% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | 38.5% | 38.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.