Old Dominion’s third-down conversion rate with Maurki James and without Maurki James
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 1.4 percentage points under with Maurki James and 2.7 percentage points over without Maurki James over its last 25 games, 17 games against 3. The plain averages are 36.7% and 47.8%, a difference of 11.1%. Both games after a bye were with Maurki James.
Maurki James, running back: 327 rushing yards, 89 carries and 10 receptions in 17 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Maurki James
−1.4%
without Maurki James
+2.7%
-10%0%10%
A −4.2% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Maurki James vs without Maurki James is about what you’d expect.
plain
36.7%
47.8%
30%40%50%
A −11.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Maurki James vs without Maurki James is unusual: shuffle which games were with Maurki James and it comes up 3 times in 100.
The games
with Maurki Jameswithout Maurki James
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs James Madison | L | 9.1% | 41.7% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 56.3% | 35.9% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | W | 58.3% | 45.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 40.0% | 29.6% | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 30.0% | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 44.4% | 39.7% | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 42.9% | 45.9% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 50.0% | 39.9% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @Marshall | L | 28.6% | 42.1% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @James Madison | L | 36.4% | 33.8% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 50.0% | 43.8% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 30.8% | 45.0% | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Troy | W | 33.3% | 41.4% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 58.3% | 45.2% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 46.7% | 45.3% | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs South Florida (neutral) | W | 45.0% | 38.6% | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Virginia Tech | L | 30.8% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs East Carolina | L | 33.3% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsJames Madison | L | 25.0% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Georgia State | L | 29.4% | 33.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Appalachian State | W | 35.0% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | L | 30.0% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 38.5% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMarshall | L | 38.5% | 38.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina Central, Norfolk State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 18 of these 22 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- 3 games in 2024 are neither with Maurki James nor without Maurki James: Maurki James had no game for the team that season, and sit out.