Old Dominion’s third-down conversion rate with Maurki James and without Maurki James
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 3.7 percentage points under with Maurki James and 6.4 percentage points under without Maurki James in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 32.8% and 43.2%, a difference of 10.4%. All 6 conference games were with Maurki James. All 5 second-half games were with Maurki James.
Maurki James, running back: 103 rushing yards, 33 carries and 4 receptions in 7 games this season.
2 games without Maurki James is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −10.4% difference in third-down conversion rate with Maurki James vs without Maurki James is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Maurki James and it comes up 12 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 55.6% | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 30.8% | 37.1% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs East Carolina | L | 33.3% | 35.5% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 25.0% | 39.2% | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia State | L | 29.4% | 33.0% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | W | 35.0% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 30.0% | 36.2% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 38.5% | 37.1% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | 38.5% | 38.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.