Old Dominion’s points allowed with Quinn Henicle and without Quinn Henicle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 4.7 points under with Quinn Henicle and 3.1 points over without Quinn Henicle over its last 25 games, 6 games against 17. The plain averages are 23.0 and 24.4, a difference of 1.4. Expected was 7.4 points higher with Quinn Henicle than without Quinn Henicle. All 3 games after a bye were without Quinn Henicle.
Quinn Henicle, quarterback: 981 passing yards, 150 pass attempts and 80 completions in 14 of those 25 games.
points allowed a game over expected
with Quinn Henicle
−4.7
without Quinn Henicle
+3.1
-20020
A −7.7 difference in points allowed over expected with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is about what you’d expect.
plain
23.0
24.4
0204060
A −1.4 difference in points allowed with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Quinn Heniclewithout Quinn Henicle
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points allowed | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs James Madison | L | 35 | 27.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 42 | 26.1 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | W | 32 | 24.4 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 27 | 42.3 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 6 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 26 | 21.7 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 7 | 17.6 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 7 | 17.3 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @Marshall | L | 48 | 18.1 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @James Madison | L | 63 | 23.5 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 21 | 13.9 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 6 | 12.9 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Troy | W | 0 | 16.4 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 10 | 21.8 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 10 | 12.5 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs South Florida (neutral) | W | 10 | 34.4 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 10 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Virginia Tech | L | 44 | 31.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs East Carolina | L | 20 | 25.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsJames Madison | L | 46 | 28.8 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Georgia State | L | 42 | 30.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Appalachian State | W | 3 | 33.2 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | L | 23 | 28.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 26 | 32.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMarshall | L | 36 | 19.6 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, minus 1.5 in 2024, minus 1.5 in 2025, minus 1.9 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 75% in 2024, 78% in 2025, 66% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina Central, Norfolk State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 18 of these 25 games; in the other 7 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.