Old Dominion’s carries with Quinn Henicle and without Quinn Henicle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 7.6 carries over with Quinn Henicle and 0.9 carries under without Quinn Henicle over its last 25 games, 6 games against 17. The plain averages are 43.6 and 38.8, a difference of 4.7. All 3 games after a bye were without Quinn Henicle.
Quinn Henicle, quarterback: 981 passing yards, 150 pass attempts and 80 completions in 14 of those 25 games, 26% of Old Dominion’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +8.5 difference in carries over expected with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Quinn Henicle and it comes up 10 times in 100.
A +4.7 difference in carries with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Quinn Henicle and it comes up 7 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2024 | vs James Madison | L | 54 | 44.2 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Marshall | L | 46 | 49.8 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ Arkansas State | W | 50 | 46.2 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | @ Indiana | L | 23 | 33.2 | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vsNNorth Carolina Central | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Virginia Tech | W | 39 | 39.8 | |
| Sep 27, 2025 | vs Liberty | W | 44 | 42.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Coastal Carolina | W | 43 | 43.5 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | @Marshall | L | 38 | 43.4 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @James Madison | L | 29 | 36.3 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Appalachian State | W | 43 | 40.6 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Louisiana Monroe | W | 44 | 42.3 | |
| Nov 13, 2025 | vs Troy | W | 46 | 42.6 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | @ Georgia Southern | W | 56 | 40.6 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vs Georgia State | W | 52 | 42.2 | |
| Dec 17, 2025 | vs South Florida (neutral) | W | 52 | 40.0 | |
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Virginia Tech | L | 30 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs East Carolina | L | 42 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsJames Madison | L | 28 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @Georgia State | L | 34 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @Appalachian State | W | 58 | 31.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vsGeorgia Southern | L | 32 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 22 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsMarshall | L | 29 | 38.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.1 in 2024, plus 0.3 in 2025, plus 0.6 in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 73% in 2024, 74% in 2025, 61% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- North Carolina Central, Norfolk State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 18 of these 25 games; in the other 7 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.