Old Dominion’s carries with Quinn Henicle and without Quinn Henicle
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 7.5 carries over with Quinn Henicle and 8.1 carries under without Quinn Henicle in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 40.6 and 27.8, a difference of 12.9. All 3 nonconference games were with Quinn Henicle.
Quinn Henicle, quarterback: 654 passing yards, 98 pass attempts and 54 completions in 6 games this season, 37% of Old Dominion’s carries in those games.
carries a game over expected
A +15.5 difference in carries over expected with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Quinn Henicle and it comes up 6 times in 100.
A +12.9 difference in carries with Quinn Henicle vs without Quinn Henicle is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Quinn Henicle and it comes up 6 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 30 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs East Carolina | L | 42 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 28 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia State | L | 34 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | W | 58 | 31.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 32 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 22 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | 29 | 38.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.