Old Dominion’s carries with Maurki James and without Maurki James
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 0.2 carries under with Maurki James and 0.9 carries under without Maurki James in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 35.0 and 34.5, a difference of 0.5. Expected was 4.3 carries higher with Maurki James than without Maurki James. All 6 conference games were with Maurki James. All 5 second-half games were with Maurki James.
Maurki James, running back: 103 rushing yards, 33 carries and 4 receptions in 7 games this season, 13% of Old Dominion’s carries in those games.
2 games without Maurki James is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A +0.5 difference in carries with Maurki James vs without Maurki James is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 39 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 30 | 30.9 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs East Carolina | L | 42 | 36.0 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 28 | 37.2 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia State | L | 34 | 35.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | W | 58 | 31.9 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 32 | 33.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 22 | 34.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | 29 | 38.1 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 7 of these 9 games; in the other 2 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.