Old Dominion’s points at home and away
, ,
Against what the season’s ratings expected, Old Dominion was 0.3 points under at home and 7.8 points under away in 2026, 4 games against 4. The plain averages are 21.2 and 10.3, a difference of 11.0. All 4 night games were at home.
Old Dominion’s +7.4 at home vs away over expected ranks 5th of the 11 teams with 4 games on each side this season.
points a game over expected
at home
−0.3
away
−7.8
-100
A +7.4 difference in points over expected at home vs away is about what you’d expect.
plain
21.2
10.3
0102030
A +11.0 difference in points at home vs away is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were at home and it comes up 15 times in 100.
The games
at homeaway
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | vsNNorfolk State | W | 31 | — | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Virginia Tech | L | 21 | 14.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs East Carolina | L | 17 | 19.8 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vs James Madison | L | 20 | 16.5 | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Georgia State | L | 10 | 22.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | @ Appalachian State | W | 10 | 20.2 | |
| Oct 15, 2026 | vs Georgia Southern | L | 15 | 18.6 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Louisiana Tech | L | 0 | 14.8 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs Marshall | L | 23 | 21.5 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.9 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 66% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Norfolk State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.