Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate with Xavier Robinson and without Xavier Robinson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 0.6 percentage points over with Xavier Robinson and 0.0 percentage points under without Xavier Robinson over its last 25 games, 20 games against 4. The plain averages are 38.0% and 40.0%, a difference of 2.0%. Expected was 2.7 percentage points lower with Xavier Robinson than without Xavier Robinson. Both bowl and playoff games were with Xavier Robinson.
Xavier Robinson, running back: 675 rushing yards, 139 carries and 28 receptions in 18 of those 25 games.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +0.6% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Xavier Robinson vs without Xavier Robinson is about what you’d expect.
A −2.0% difference in third-down conversion rate with Xavier Robinson vs without Xavier Robinson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Missouri | L | 33.3% | 32.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Alabama | W | 46.7% | 33.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 33.3% | 36.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Navy (neutral) | L | 57.9% | 38.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Illinois State | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 52.9% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 46.2% | 39.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 25.0% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 53.8% | 48.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 35.3% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 50.0% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | 28.6% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 40.0% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Alabama | W | 23.1% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsMissouri | W | 37.5% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 26.7% | 38.1% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | 38.9% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 54.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 23.1% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 46.7% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 14.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas (neutral) | W | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 47.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 43.8% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | L | 43.8% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6% in 2024, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 50% in 2024, 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Illinois State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists for 21 of these 25 games; in the other 4 a player is counted as in them when the box score has a stat for him.