Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate with Xavier Robinson and without Xavier Robinson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 1.9 percentage points under with Xavier Robinson and 1.7 percentage points under without Xavier Robinson in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 36.5% and 35.4%, a difference of 1.1%. Expected was 1.2 percentage points higher with Xavier Robinson than without Xavier Robinson. All 3 games while ranked were with Xavier Robinson. All 3 nonconference games were with Xavier Robinson. All 4 first-half games were with Xavier Robinson.
Xavier Robinson, running back: 50 rushing yards, 13 carries and 3 receptions in 4 games this season.
3 games without Xavier Robinson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A −0.1% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Xavier Robinson vs without Xavier Robinson is about what you’d expect.
A +1.1% difference in third-down conversion rate with Xavier Robinson vs without Xavier Robinson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 54.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 23.1% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 46.7% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 14.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 47.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 43.8% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 43.8% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.