Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate with Trell Harris and since Trell Harris’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 1.2 percentage points under with Trell Harris and 2.0 percentage points under since Trell Harris’ last game over its last 25 games, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 38.8% and 35.1%, a difference of 3.7%. Both night games were since Trell Harris’ last game. All 3 ranked opponents were since Trell Harris’ last game. Both top-10 opponents were since Trell Harris’ last game.
Trell Harris, receiver: 104 receiving yards, 6 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 2 of those 25 games.
2 games with Trell Harris is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +0.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Trell Harris vs since Trell Harris’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +3.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Trell Harris vs since Trell Harris’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Missouri | L | 33.3% | 32.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Alabama | W | 46.7% | 33.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 33.3% | 36.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Navy (neutral) | L | 57.9% | 38.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Illinois State | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 52.9% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 46.2% | 39.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 25.0% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 53.8% | 48.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 35.3% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 50.0% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | 28.6% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 40.0% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Alabama | W | 23.1% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsMissouri | W | 37.5% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 26.7% | 38.1% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | 38.9% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 54.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 23.1% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 46.7% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 14.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas (neutral) | W | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 47.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 43.8% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | L | 43.8% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Trell Harris nor since Trell Harris’ last game: Trell Harris had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.