Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate with Trell Harris and since Trell Harris’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 1.2 percentage points under with Trell Harris and 2.0 percentage points under since Trell Harris’ last game in 2026, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 38.8% and 35.1%, a difference of 3.7%. Both night games were since Trell Harris’ last game. All 3 ranked opponents were since Trell Harris’ last game. Both top-10 opponents were since Trell Harris’ last game.
Trell Harris, receiver: 104 receiving yards, 6 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 2 games this season.
2 games with Trell Harris is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
A +0.8% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Trell Harris vs since Trell Harris’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +3.7% difference in third-down conversion rate with Trell Harris vs since Trell Harris’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 54.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 23.1% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 46.7% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 14.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 47.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 43.8% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 43.8% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.