Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate with Tory Blaylock and without Tory Blaylock
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 1.6 percentage points under with Tory Blaylock and 11.9 percentage points over without Tory Blaylock over its last 25 games, 19 games against 1. The plain averages are 36.6% and 54.5%, a difference of 17.9%. All 7 away games were with Tory Blaylock. Both neutral-site games were with Tory Blaylock. All 5 night games were with Tory Blaylock.
Tory Blaylock, running back: 628 rushing yards, 155 carries and 16 receptions in 19 of those 25 games.
One game without Tory Blaylock is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Tory Blaylock
−1.6%
without Tory Blaylock
+11.9%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
36.6%
54.5%
20%40%
The games
with Tory Blaylockwithout Tory Blaylock
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Missouri | L | 33.3% | 32.2% | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Alabama | W | 46.7% | 33.1% | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 33.3% | 36.9% | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Navy (neutral) | L | 57.9% | 38.1% | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Illinois State | W | 40.0% | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 52.9% | 36.2% | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 46.2% | 39.6% | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 25.0% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 53.8% | 48.7% | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 35.3% | 35.0% | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 50.0% | 37.0% | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | 28.6% | 39.2% | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 40.0% | 40.1% | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Alabama | W | 23.1% | 38.1% | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsMissouri | W | 37.5% | 36.3% | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 26.7% | 38.1% | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | 38.9% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 54.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 23.1% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 46.7% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 14.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas (neutral) | W | 15.4% | 34.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 47.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 43.8% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | L | 43.8% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every game of its season between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7% in 2025, plus 1.4% in 2026 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 56% in 2025, 40% in 2026 of the difference the model predicts.
- Illinois State has no other game in the table, so that game has no expected number and sits out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 4 games in 2024 are neither with Tory Blaylock nor without Tory Blaylock: Tory Blaylock had no game for the team that season, and sit out.