Oklahoma’s third-down conversion rate with Tory Blaylock and without Tory Blaylock
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 3.8 percentage points under with Tory Blaylock and 11.9 percentage points over without Tory Blaylock in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.4% and 54.5%, a difference of 21.1%. All 3 away games were with Tory Blaylock. Both night games were with Tory Blaylock. All 3 ranked opponents were with Tory Blaylock.
Tory Blaylock, running back: 148 rushing yards, 35 carries and 3 receptions in 7 games this season.
One game without Tory Blaylock is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Tory Blaylock
−3.8%
without Tory Blaylock
+11.9%
-20%-10%0%10%
plain
33.4%
54.5%
20%40%
The games
with Tory Blaylockwithout Tory Blaylock
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 54.5% | 42.6% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 23.1% | 37.5% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 46.7% | 37.6% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 14.3% | 36.1% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 15.4% | 34.9% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 47.1% | 39.1% | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 43.8% | 37.4% | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 43.8% | 37.9% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.