Oklahoma’s rushing yards with Xavier Robinson and without Xavier Robinson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 38.1 yards under with Xavier Robinson and 13.4 yards over without Xavier Robinson in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 102.6 and 115.3, a difference of 12.7. Expected was 38.7 yards higher with Xavier Robinson than without Xavier Robinson. All 3 games while ranked were with Xavier Robinson. All 3 nonconference games were with Xavier Robinson. All 4 first-half games were with Xavier Robinson.
Xavier Robinson, running back: 50 rushing yards, 13 carries and 3 receptions in 4 games this season, 13% of Oklahoma’s rushing yards in those games.
3 games without Xavier Robinson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
A −51.5 difference in rushing yards over expected with Xavier Robinson vs without Xavier Robinson is about what you’d expect.
A −12.7 difference in rushing yards with Xavier Robinson vs without Xavier Robinson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 170 | 205.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 100 | 118.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 63 | 150.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 65 | 108.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 84 | 85.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 76 | 125.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 186 | 95.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 115 | 121.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.