Oklahoma’s rushing yards with Jonathan Hatton Jr. and without Jonathan Hatton Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 18.9 yards under with Jonathan Hatton Jr. and 18.0 yards under without Jonathan Hatton Jr. in 2026, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 108.4 and 100.0, a difference of 8.4. Expected was 9.3 yards higher with Jonathan Hatton Jr. than without Jonathan Hatton Jr.. All 4 home games were with Jonathan Hatton Jr.. Both night games were with Jonathan Hatton Jr.. All 3 ranked opponents were with Jonathan Hatton Jr..
Jonathan Hatton Jr., running back: 93 rushing yards, 31 carries and 10 receptions in 7 games this season, 12% of Oklahoma’s rushing yards in those games.
One game without Jonathan Hatton Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
rushing yards a game over expected
with Jonathan Hatton Jr.
−18.9
without Jonathan Hatton Jr.
−18.0
-50050
plain
108.4
100.0
100150
The games
with Jonathan Hatton Jr.without Jonathan Hatton Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | rushing yards | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 170 | 205.9 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | 100 | 118.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 63 | 150.1 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 65 | 108.4 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 84 | 85.5 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 76 | 125.0 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 186 | 95.4 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | 115 | 121.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 8.0 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 60% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.