Oklahoma’s points of margin with Xavier Robinson and without Xavier Robinson
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 5.1 points under with Xavier Robinson and 9.1 points over without Xavier Robinson in 2026, 5 games against 3. The plain averages are 1.4 and 1.0, a difference of 0.4. Expected was 14.5 points higher with Xavier Robinson than without Xavier Robinson. All 3 games while ranked were with Xavier Robinson. All 3 nonconference games were with Xavier Robinson. All 4 first-half games were with Xavier Robinson.
Xavier Robinson, running back: 50 rushing yards, 13 carries and 3 receptions in 4 games this season.
3 games without Xavier Robinson is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A −14.1 difference in points of margin over expected with Xavier Robinson vs without Xavier Robinson is about what you’d expect.
A +0.4 difference in points of margin with Xavier Robinson vs without Xavier Robinson is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 51 | 34.2 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | -7 | 6.1 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 8 | 5.6 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | -28 | -13.0 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 3 | -15.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | -8 | -0.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 8 | -7.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | -17 | -0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.