Oklahoma’s points of margin with Trell Harris and since Trell Harris’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 1.7 points over with Trell Harris and 0.3 points under since Trell Harris’ last game in 2026, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 22.0 and -5.7, a difference of 27.7. Both night games were since Trell Harris’ last game. All 3 ranked opponents were since Trell Harris’ last game. Both top-10 opponents were since Trell Harris’ last game.
Trell Harris, receiver: 104 receiving yards, 6 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 2 games this season.
2 games with Trell Harris is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
points of margin a game over expected
A +2.0 difference in points of margin over expected with Trell Harris vs since Trell Harris’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +27.7 difference in points of margin with Trell Harris vs since Trell Harris’ last game is a bit unusual: shuffle which games were with Trell Harris and it comes up 17 times in 100.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | points of margin | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 51 | 34.3 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @ Michigan | L | -7 | 6.2 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 8 | 5.2 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | -28 | -12.9 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Texas (neutral) | W | 3 | -15.6 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | -8 | -0.9 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 8 | -7.6 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vs South Carolina | L | -17 | -0.4 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 3.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 79% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.