Oklahoma’s carries with Trell Harris and since Trell Harris’ last game
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 2.1 carries under with Trell Harris and 0.4 carries under since Trell Harris’ last game over its last 25 games, 2 games against 6. The plain averages are 34.0 and 32.7, a difference of 1.3. Expected was 3.0 carries higher with Trell Harris than since Trell Harris’ last game. Both night games were since Trell Harris’ last game. All 3 ranked opponents were since Trell Harris’ last game. Both top-10 opponents were since Trell Harris’ last game.
Trell Harris, receiver: 104 receiving yards, 6 receptions and 1 receiving touchdown in 2 of those 25 games.
2 games with Trell Harris is still too small a sample for the statistics to say much, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
A −1.7 difference in carries over expected with Trell Harris vs since Trell Harris’ last game is about what you’d expect.
A +1.3 difference in carries with Trell Harris vs since Trell Harris’ last game is about what you’d expect.
The games
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Missouri | L | 36 | 34.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Alabama | W | 49 | 38.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 37 | 34.2 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Navy (neutral) | L | 40 | 38.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Illinois State | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 39 | 31.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 42 | 34.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 24 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 41 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 30 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 39 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | 28 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 33 | 36.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Alabama | W | 25 | 31.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsMissouri | W | 31 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 26 | 32.9 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | 33 | 30.7 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 39 | 37.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 29 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 30 | 35.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 35 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas (neutral) | W | 30 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 31 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 39 | 31.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | L | 31 | 34.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.6 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- The two sides are the games before and after one date, so the shuffle moves any game between them.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Trell Harris nor since Trell Harris’ last game: Trell Harris had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.