Oklahoma’s carries with Jonathan Hatton Jr. and without Jonathan Hatton Jr.
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Oklahoma was 0.1 carries under with Jonathan Hatton Jr. and 6.0 carries under without Jonathan Hatton Jr. over its last 25 games, 7 games against 1. The plain averages are 33.6 and 29.0, a difference of 4.6. All 4 home games were with Jonathan Hatton Jr.. Both night games were with Jonathan Hatton Jr.. All 3 ranked opponents were with Jonathan Hatton Jr..
Jonathan Hatton Jr., running back: 93 rushing yards, 31 carries and 10 receptions in 7 of those 25 games, 13% of Oklahoma’s carries in those games.
One game without Jonathan Hatton Jr. is one game, not a sample, but maybe you can find something if you squint.
carries a game over expected
with Jonathan Hatton Jr.
−0.1
without Jonathan Hatton Jr.
−6.0
-505
plain
33.6
29.0
3035
The games
with Jonathan Hatton Jr.without Jonathan Hatton Jr.
| Side | Date | Game | Result | carries | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2024 | @ Missouri | L | 36 | 34.0 | |
| Nov 23, 2024 | vs Alabama | W | 49 | 38.6 | |
| Nov 30, 2024 | @ LSU | L | 37 | 34.2 | |
| Dec 27, 2024 | vs Navy (neutral) | L | 40 | 38.6 | |
| Aug 30, 2025 | vs Illinois State | W | 32 | — | |
| Sep 6, 2025 | vs Michigan | W | 39 | 31.8 | |
| Sep 13, 2025 | @ Temple | W | 42 | 34.0 | |
| Sep 20, 2025 | vs Auburn | W | 24 | 33.0 | |
| Oct 4, 2025 | vs Kent State | W | 41 | 38.2 | |
| Oct 11, 2025 | vs Texas (neutral) | L | 30 | 32.6 | |
| Oct 18, 2025 | @ South Carolina | W | 39 | 32.8 | |
| Oct 25, 2025 | vs Ole Miss | L | 28 | 34.4 | |
| Nov 1, 2025 | @ Tennessee | W | 33 | 36.6 | |
| Nov 15, 2025 | @Alabama | W | 25 | 31.2 | |
| Nov 22, 2025 | vsMissouri | W | 31 | 30.7 | |
| Nov 29, 2025 | vsLSU | W | 26 | 32.9 | |
| Dec 19, 2025 | vsAlabama | L | 33 | 30.7 | |
| Sep 4, 2026 | vs UTEP | W | 39 | 37.1 | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | @Michigan | L | 29 | 35.0 | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | vs New Mexico | W | 30 | 35.5 | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | @ Georgia | L | 35 | 31.5 | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vsTexas (neutral) | W | 30 | 33.9 | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | vs Kentucky | L | 31 | 31.8 | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | @ Mississippi State | W | 39 | 31.7 | |
| Oct 31, 2026 | vsSouth Carolina | L | 31 | 34.0 |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 0.7 for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 61% of the difference the model predicts.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- 17 games in 2024 and 2025 are neither with Jonathan Hatton Jr. nor without Jonathan Hatton Jr.: Jonathan Hatton Jr. had no game for the team those seasons, and sit out.