Ohio’s third-down conversion rate with Matt Vezza and without Matt Vezza
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Against what the season’s ratings expected, Ohio was 9.7 percentage points over with Matt Vezza and 1.0 percentage points over without Matt Vezza in 2026, 3 games against 3. The plain averages are 51.6% and 45.4%, a difference of 6.3%.
Matt Vezza, quarterback: 444 passing yards, 62 pass attempts and 41 completions in 6 games this season.
third-down conversion rate a game over expected
with Matt Vezza
+9.7%
without Matt Vezza
+1.0%
-20%0%20%
A +8.7% difference in third-down conversion rate over expected with Matt Vezza vs without Matt Vezza is about what you’d expect.
plain
51.6%
45.4%
30%40%50%60%
A +6.3% difference in third-down conversion rate with Matt Vezza vs without Matt Vezza is about what you’d expect.
The games
with Matt Vezzawithout Matt Vezza
| Side | Date | Game | Result | 3rd downs | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | @ Nebraska | L | 40.0% | 32.4% | |
| Sep 12, 2026 | vs Jacksonville State | W | 52.9% | 46.7% | |
| Sep 19, 2026 | @ South Alabama | L | 63.6% | 38.3% | |
| Sep 26, 2026 | vsSStonehill | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 3, 2026 | @ Kent State | W | 40.0% | 42.5% | |
| Oct 10, 2026 | vs Central Michigan | W | 64.3% | 46.8% | |
| Oct 17, 2026 | @SSacramento State | W | 50.0% | — | |
| Oct 24, 2026 | vs Eastern Michigan | W | 27.3% | 49.4% |
Method
- Expected is an offense and a defense a team, fit over every 2026 game between two teams in the table with the game being read left out, plus 1.4% for the home team (the edge the fit finds once strength is in), nothing at a neutral site.
- Each expected number is then fit to the season’s games: a game bears out about 40% of the difference the model predicts.
- The shuffle keeps the season’s shape: the games are cut in two where one date leaves the least variance, each game is read against its stretch, and the sides are shuffled only inside each stretch.
- Stonehill, Sacramento State have no other game in the table, so those games have no expected number and sit out the second figure.
- Who played is read from the schools’ box scores’ participation lists, which name every player who entered the game.
- With him means he was the team’s quarterback that game, at least half of its pass attempts; a game he left early or came into late reads as without him.